The Chang'e 4 probe represents the expansion of China's space programme and the capabilities it has amassed, which is significant for China and global relations among great powers. As the Trump administration considers global competition in space as well as the future of space exploration, the consequences extend to the United States.
Competition with Russia has historically been a major driver of US space policy, particularly during the Cold War. If China's achievements continue, could the United States find itself in a new space race?
China's space achievements:
The People's Republic of China, like the United States and Russia, began its space activities in the 1950s with the development of ballistic missiles. While the Soviet Union provided some assistance, China developed its space programme largely on its own. Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, far from being smooth sailing, disrupted these early programmes.
In 1970, the Chinese launched their first satellite. Following that, an early human spaceflight programme was put on hold in order to concentrate on commercial satellite applications. Deng Xiaoping articulated China's space policy in 1978, stating that as a developing country, China would not participate in a space race. Instead, China's space efforts have concentrated on launch vehicles as well as satellites for communications, remote sensing, and meteorology.
This is not to say that the Chinese were unconcerned about the global power that space efforts could generate. They concluded in 1992 that having a space station would be a major sign and source of prestige in the twenty-first century. As a result, a human spaceflight programme was revived, resulting in the development of the Shenzhou spacecraft. Yang Liwei, the first Chinese astronaut or taikonaut, was launched in 2003. Six Shenzhou missions have carried 12 taikonauts into low-Earth orbit, including two to Tiangong-1, China's first space station.
In addition to human spaceflight, China has launched scientific missions such as Chang'e 4. Chang'e 1, its first lunar mission, orbited the moon in October 2007, and a rover landed on the moon in 2013. China's long-term plans include a new space station, a lunar base, and possible Mars sample return missions.
A new race in space?
The Chinese space program's most notable feature, especially when compared to the early American and Russian programmes, is its slow and steady pace. The Chinese space program's exact capabilities are unknown due to the secrecy that surrounds many aspects of it. However, the programme is most likely on par with its peers.
China has also demonstrated significant capabilities in military applications. It conducted an anti-satellite test in 2007, launching a ground-based missile to destroy a failed weather satellite. While the test was successful, it created a cloud of orbital debris that continues to endanger other satellites. "Gravity" depicted the dangers that space debris poses to both satellites and humans. The Department of Defense reported in its 2018 report on the Chinese military that China's military space programme "continues to mature rapidly."
Despite its capabilities,
The United States, unlike other countries, has avoided significant cooperation with China due to national security concerns. In fact, a law passed in 2011 prohibits official contact with Chinese space officials. Is this the start of a new space race between the United States and China?
As a researcher in space policy,
I can answer yes and no. Some US officials, such as Scott Pace, executive secretary of the National Space Council, are cautiously optimistic about the potential for cooperation and do not see a new space race beginning. NASA Administrator Jim Brindenstine recently met with the head of China's space programme at the International Astronautical Conference in Germany, where they discussed areas where the two countries can collaborate. Increased military presence in space, on the other hand, may lead to increased competition. The Trump administration has used China and Russia's threats to support its case for a new independent military branch, the Space Force.
Regardless,
China's space capabilities are growing to the point where they are reflected in popular culture. In Andy Weir's 2011 novel "The Martian," and its subsequent film adaptation, NASA turns to China for assistance in rescuing its stranded astronaut. While competition can lead to technological advancements, as the first space race demonstrated, a greater global capacity for space exploration can be beneficial not only for saving stranded astronauts but also for increasing knowledge about the universe in which we all live. Even if China's rise ushers in a new space race, the consequences will not be entirely negative.
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